Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Graded Stakes: Dosage And Live Longshots

With respect to handicapping classic generation (i.e. 3yo colts and fillies) graded stakes races around the world, it is often difficult to get the relevant data (past performances, trainer statistics, and so on) to make an informed selection. However, pedigree details are usually available and using dosage it is certainly possible to identify some live longshots.
For example, in the recent French 2000 Guineas, using past renewals (DI=1.85, CD=0.43) as a guideline dosage would have identified Lucayan (DI=1.80, CD=0.50) as the number one ranked contender (Won, 33/1).
Food for thought?